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This " What's a prez to do" is a great series- thanks for keeping it rolling.

In regards to this particular topic, I have always thought that even had Lincoln not fought to keep the union, there would be war between the north and south. The southern states as the Confederacy were basically an expansionist fascist state. Their goal was to expand slavery west as well as south into Cuba and even Brazil if I recall. Western expansion would naturally create sectional tension as it was doing so in your article, except it would be between two nations. Escaped slaves to a non-slave northern "United States" would also be a bone of contention and it would have been highly unlikely that the United States (USA) would have signed a treaty with a CSA to return them. We would have likely had armed outposts along a USA-CSA border.

Looking forward to the next installment though!

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