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No one knows what will happen ultimately in the Russo-Ukraine War of 2022. For the time being Ukraine is holding on. I think about the Spanish Civil War 1936-1939. In that war foreign military aid (from Axis powers) and credits for oil for the Nationalist probably helped turn the tide.

Similarly, Ukraine may have operationally outflanked Russia with its nimble army and ultra modern weapons. Now the question will be if Putin dare keep the screws on and accept even higher losses. My guess is that Russia cannot sustain its attacks and fears weakening its armed forces even more. My guess is China wills stand on the sidelines and plan to steal some of Russia for itself in the long rune. The Russo-Ukraine war may have given new life to NATO. We only hope this war does not turn nuclear which is a possibility.

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The Spanish Civil War is a good example of another conflict with international involvement. One difference there, though, is that Spain itself was deeply divided, in a way Ukraine, except for Crimea and Donbas, is not, at least yet. Putin seems to be seeking an exit from a mess he didn't expect. But, as always, we'll have to wait and see.

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