This piece comes at a good time. The two major front runners would become second term presidents if they win this fall. Or if someone emerges to replace Biden that person would face a political divide that is not going away anytime soon. All this suggests the next eight years will present political problems that maybe beyond anyone's abilities to navigate.
If Biden or Trump wins they are shortly lameducks. Early in their terms presidential aspirants emerge that shifts the light away from the president. Second terms seem to lose steam. New ideas seem stale. Talented advisors move on and seem relieved to get away from the pressures. For Trump we will get a constant claim that the country should have him for even a third term. Would he pay attention to the constitutional limitations? Doubt it. America's foundation is under seige.
Biden was smart to NOT promise only one term when he was elected. As Teddy Roosevelt found out- that wold have immediately made him a lame duck. If he was going to bow out it needed to be as far back as January. Historical analogy, LBJ deciding at the end of March 1968 threw confusion into the Democratic Party undermining immediately whoever won at the convention, which proved to be Hubert Humphrey. LBJs announcement at the end of March at least gave the Dems five full months. We only have two months now
I believe the dems were more polarized in 1968 than now. The convention did not go well but Humphery came thru in pretty good shape and came close to beating Nixon prevailing over the bitter antiwar context.
While you may be correct about the polarization, you are incorrect about the victory. By nixon, it was not even close
Yes, the popular vote was closed, but as we know, since 2000 the only thing that counts as the electoral college and it was a blowout Nixon, one handily with 301 to 191.
Dennis (Please forgive me for my familiarity in addressing you by your first name, but I feel I know you because you are a long-time fellow commenter on Prof. Brands’ essays, as am I, so I feel a certain kindredness. Reciprocating, please feel free to mutually address or reference me by my first name.)
I don’t know if you play chess, but I do.
In this year’s United States Senate elections, 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections, 26 senators (15 Democrats, nine Republicans, and two independents) are seeking reelection. Two Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), three Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), and two independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) are not seeking reelection. Laphonza Butler of California, a Democrat who was appointed to her current seat in 2023, is not seeking election in 2024. Two special Senate elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California, to fill the final two months of Senator Dianne Feinstein's term following her death in September of 2023, and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse's term following his resignation in January of 2023. These Senate elections are highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 of these seats. Three seats being defended by Democrats are in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while there are no seats held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous two Senate election cycles that coincided with presidential elections (2016 and 2020), only one senator (Susan Collins in 2020) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.
My concern about President Biden and his perceived physical and mental condition at age 81 is what effect his continued presidential candidacy will have on down ballot races.
I pulled out my copy of the Constitution that I have carried with me for 50 years since I learned that the “Great Dissenter,” Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas, always carried and routinely consulted a copy in his breast pocket, and reread Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2-4, as amended by the 12th Amendment.
The Electoral College has “counted” in presidential elections and has been part of our Democratic Republic since the Constitution was ratified in 1788 and in its operation since 1789, as modified by the 12th Amendment in 1804. It therefore has “counted” in the United States for 235 years, not since the 2000 Presidential Election as you write. By the way, that election was between George W. Bush and Al Gore, not Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey, which was in 1968.
Alfred E. Newman famously stated “What, me worry?” Well, I am beginning to. If the presidential coattails cannot help raise these Senate candidates, but instead pull them down and drown them in the electoral lagoon, where will we be?
Where do you think you will be?
I join with you in celebrating the Fourth of July.
To finish the thought of this essay, or at least my thoughts on it: The “Second Term Dilemna” is also the problem we voters have in this election cycle. After all, Trump is also running for a second term. And most all of us sense, even if only subconsciously, or if consciously but which we are unable to publicly admit, that a second term for either will have disastrous consequences for us all.
Kinky Friedman died the other day, and in July 2019, after not quite 70 years, “Mad Magazine,” the vehicle that launched Alfred E. Neuman’s “Presidential Campaigns” in 1960, announced that it would cease regular publication of new material. Neither Kinky nor Alfred E. will appear on any state’s presidential ballot this November. Too bad.
"a second term for either will have disastrous consequences for us all."
WOW Hyperbole! A second Trump term with the GOP Project 2025 and inclinations for a "red caesar" would be disasterous- they have openly admitted to rolling back marriage equality, furthering the nationalizing of the abolition of abortion, cuts to voting rights, deregulation aided by the corrupt SCOTUS attacks on the regulatory agencies. A GOP /Trump win will be massive hurt to LGBTQ community and finally an undermining of our international alliances as well as aid to Ukraine in its fight against a fascist Russia.
To act like a Biden win approaches ANYTHING like that is ludicrous
Does the second term failure thing apply to Grover Cleveland? There was a four year gap between his two terms because he was initially defeated by Benjamin Harrison, and things might have changed. My fear is that Trump repeats Cleveland's feat and Biden ends up like Harrison.
In a saner time the perfect candidate would be John Bell Edwards, the former governor of my State of Louisiana. He is a true moderate and capable of appealing to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. He just never stands a chance because the primary system is rigged to the more radical candidates.
This piece comes at a good time. The two major front runners would become second term presidents if they win this fall. Or if someone emerges to replace Biden that person would face a political divide that is not going away anytime soon. All this suggests the next eight years will present political problems that maybe beyond anyone's abilities to navigate.
If Biden or Trump wins they are shortly lameducks. Early in their terms presidential aspirants emerge that shifts the light away from the president. Second terms seem to lose steam. New ideas seem stale. Talented advisors move on and seem relieved to get away from the pressures. For Trump we will get a constant claim that the country should have him for even a third term. Would he pay attention to the constitutional limitations? Doubt it. America's foundation is under seige.
What an excellent historical analysis, fitting President Biden in the context of other two-term presidents.
Biden was smart to NOT promise only one term when he was elected. As Teddy Roosevelt found out- that wold have immediately made him a lame duck. If he was going to bow out it needed to be as far back as January. Historical analogy, LBJ deciding at the end of March 1968 threw confusion into the Democratic Party undermining immediately whoever won at the convention, which proved to be Hubert Humphrey. LBJs announcement at the end of March at least gave the Dems five full months. We only have two months now
I believe the dems were more polarized in 1968 than now. The convention did not go well but Humphery came thru in pretty good shape and came close to beating Nixon prevailing over the bitter antiwar context.
While you may be correct about the polarization, you are incorrect about the victory. By nixon, it was not even close
Yes, the popular vote was closed, but as we know, since 2000 the only thing that counts as the electoral college and it was a blowout Nixon, one handily with 301 to 191.
Dennis (Please forgive me for my familiarity in addressing you by your first name, but I feel I know you because you are a long-time fellow commenter on Prof. Brands’ essays, as am I, so I feel a certain kindredness. Reciprocating, please feel free to mutually address or reference me by my first name.)
I don’t know if you play chess, but I do.
In this year’s United States Senate elections, 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections, 26 senators (15 Democrats, nine Republicans, and two independents) are seeking reelection. Two Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), three Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), and two independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) are not seeking reelection. Laphonza Butler of California, a Democrat who was appointed to her current seat in 2023, is not seeking election in 2024. Two special Senate elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California, to fill the final two months of Senator Dianne Feinstein's term following her death in September of 2023, and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse's term following his resignation in January of 2023. These Senate elections are highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 of these seats. Three seats being defended by Democrats are in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while there are no seats held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous two Senate election cycles that coincided with presidential elections (2016 and 2020), only one senator (Susan Collins in 2020) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.
My concern about President Biden and his perceived physical and mental condition at age 81 is what effect his continued presidential candidacy will have on down ballot races.
I pulled out my copy of the Constitution that I have carried with me for 50 years since I learned that the “Great Dissenter,” Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas, always carried and routinely consulted a copy in his breast pocket, and reread Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2-4, as amended by the 12th Amendment.
The Electoral College has “counted” in presidential elections and has been part of our Democratic Republic since the Constitution was ratified in 1788 and in its operation since 1789, as modified by the 12th Amendment in 1804. It therefore has “counted” in the United States for 235 years, not since the 2000 Presidential Election as you write. By the way, that election was between George W. Bush and Al Gore, not Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey, which was in 1968.
Alfred E. Newman famously stated “What, me worry?” Well, I am beginning to. If the presidential coattails cannot help raise these Senate candidates, but instead pull them down and drown them in the electoral lagoon, where will we be?
Where do you think you will be?
I join with you in celebrating the Fourth of July.
Jim Guleke
Unfortunately everyone looks at the veneer of performance rather than the real issues and policies! See my response to Jim Guleke below!
To finish the thought of this essay, or at least my thoughts on it: The “Second Term Dilemna” is also the problem we voters have in this election cycle. After all, Trump is also running for a second term. And most all of us sense, even if only subconsciously, or if consciously but which we are unable to publicly admit, that a second term for either will have disastrous consequences for us all.
Kinky Friedman died the other day, and in July 2019, after not quite 70 years, “Mad Magazine,” the vehicle that launched Alfred E. Neuman’s “Presidential Campaigns” in 1960, announced that it would cease regular publication of new material. Neither Kinky nor Alfred E. will appear on any state’s presidential ballot this November. Too bad.
"a second term for either will have disastrous consequences for us all."
WOW Hyperbole! A second Trump term with the GOP Project 2025 and inclinations for a "red caesar" would be disasterous- they have openly admitted to rolling back marriage equality, furthering the nationalizing of the abolition of abortion, cuts to voting rights, deregulation aided by the corrupt SCOTUS attacks on the regulatory agencies. A GOP /Trump win will be massive hurt to LGBTQ community and finally an undermining of our international alliances as well as aid to Ukraine in its fight against a fascist Russia.
To act like a Biden win approaches ANYTHING like that is ludicrous
Does the second term failure thing apply to Grover Cleveland? There was a four year gap between his two terms because he was initially defeated by Benjamin Harrison, and things might have changed. My fear is that Trump repeats Cleveland's feat and Biden ends up like Harrison.
In a saner time the perfect candidate would be John Bell Edwards, the former governor of my State of Louisiana. He is a true moderate and capable of appealing to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. He just never stands a chance because the primary system is rigged to the more radical candidates.