Ukraine possesses several “rare earth” elements, including gallium, lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, samarium, yttrium,and scandium, found in various deposits across Ukraine, particularly in the eastern regions. A significant portion of these deposits are located in areas currently under Russian control. Were I a betting man, my bet on what the memo looks like that Trump pushes across the table to Putin will look very similar to a current geologic map showing where these deposits are located.
Valuable real politick, balance of power, historical context for the apparent return of the cynical big game to the stage of the world in the 21st century. We'll see how it goes this time around.
The Ukraine debacle is, I think, something of a “chickens coming home to roost” problem. It’s been decades that a series of U.S. President quietly (except in the case of President Trump) tried to have all NATO countries meet their defense obligations. To many Americans, it did seem that these countries were freeloading under the U.S. nuclear shield while many subsidized their welfare states. Whether altogether accurate or not, that was the narrative.
Ukraine is, or should have been, a primarily European problem to solve. For logistics reasons, the Western and Central European countries military reach is limited to the continent. In a sense, they have learned precious little from the implosion of Yugoslavia.
So strategically, given the lack of infinite resources, the obvious current division of labor should be that Europe deal with Russia while the U.S. with a kaleidoscope of local allies will deal with the Middle East and China.
Unfortunately, Europe may not be able to ramp up in time to help Ukraine at this time. So the resolution there will likely not be a peace treaty but a ceasefire in place until either Putin dies, the Russian economy collapses or, for whatever reason war resumes. In all of this, Ukraine still controls some Russian territory so there’s some leverage there.
As a final thought, it wasn’t just Munich, Yalta or the Churchill-Stalin tête-à-tête mentioned in the article where decisions were made on behalf of states that were not invited but were affected by the outcome. A fair argument could be made that the JCPOA should be added to that group. Israel - whom Iran had made its primary enemy and called a one nuclear bomb state - was not involved in the negotiations and, it seems, President Obama tried to keep it in the dark for as long as possible.
Given these examples, the weak suffer what they must … even if, as events since October 7 have shown, Israel isn’t so much weak but finds its freedom of action constricted by its allies - though with President Trump, things might change … or not. It’s hard to say with him.
The Ukrainians cannot be reasonably expected to give up territory regardless of anything Trump says or does. In fact, Trump actually let out of the bag the real reason for the Russian invasion when he tried to coerce Ukraine into signing over precious minerals for continued support. That is the reason Putin invaded the two regions of eastern Ukraine- resources to plunder by the Russian oligarchy.
Letting Russia keep portions of Ukraine also undermines the post WW2 principle of not using war to take land from other nations. If Russia is allowed to do so, then there is zero justification for protecting Taiwan from China
Ukraine possesses several “rare earth” elements, including gallium, lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, samarium, yttrium,and scandium, found in various deposits across Ukraine, particularly in the eastern regions. A significant portion of these deposits are located in areas currently under Russian control. Were I a betting man, my bet on what the memo looks like that Trump pushes across the table to Putin will look very similar to a current geologic map showing where these deposits are located.
Valuable real politick, balance of power, historical context for the apparent return of the cynical big game to the stage of the world in the 21st century. We'll see how it goes this time around.
The Ukraine debacle is, I think, something of a “chickens coming home to roost” problem. It’s been decades that a series of U.S. President quietly (except in the case of President Trump) tried to have all NATO countries meet their defense obligations. To many Americans, it did seem that these countries were freeloading under the U.S. nuclear shield while many subsidized their welfare states. Whether altogether accurate or not, that was the narrative.
Ukraine is, or should have been, a primarily European problem to solve. For logistics reasons, the Western and Central European countries military reach is limited to the continent. In a sense, they have learned precious little from the implosion of Yugoslavia.
So strategically, given the lack of infinite resources, the obvious current division of labor should be that Europe deal with Russia while the U.S. with a kaleidoscope of local allies will deal with the Middle East and China.
Unfortunately, Europe may not be able to ramp up in time to help Ukraine at this time. So the resolution there will likely not be a peace treaty but a ceasefire in place until either Putin dies, the Russian economy collapses or, for whatever reason war resumes. In all of this, Ukraine still controls some Russian territory so there’s some leverage there.
As a final thought, it wasn’t just Munich, Yalta or the Churchill-Stalin tête-à-tête mentioned in the article where decisions were made on behalf of states that were not invited but were affected by the outcome. A fair argument could be made that the JCPOA should be added to that group. Israel - whom Iran had made its primary enemy and called a one nuclear bomb state - was not involved in the negotiations and, it seems, President Obama tried to keep it in the dark for as long as possible.
Given these examples, the weak suffer what they must … even if, as events since October 7 have shown, Israel isn’t so much weak but finds its freedom of action constricted by its allies - though with President Trump, things might change … or not. It’s hard to say with him.
The Ukrainians cannot be reasonably expected to give up territory regardless of anything Trump says or does. In fact, Trump actually let out of the bag the real reason for the Russian invasion when he tried to coerce Ukraine into signing over precious minerals for continued support. That is the reason Putin invaded the two regions of eastern Ukraine- resources to plunder by the Russian oligarchy.
Letting Russia keep portions of Ukraine also undermines the post WW2 principle of not using war to take land from other nations. If Russia is allowed to do so, then there is zero justification for protecting Taiwan from China