Foreign wars and domestic disturbances

Last fall I published a book called Founding Partisans, on the emergence of party politics in the United States in the 1780s and 1790s. The book went to the printer in early summer and consequently couldn't reflect events that have happened since then.

One of the topics I discussed in the book was the role of foreign war in separating Federalists from Republicans in the 1790s. I noted that this made politics more acrimonious than it had been, because it allowed each side to characterize the other as treasonously more interested in a foreign nation than in America. I remarked that this was unusual in American history. When Americans have gotten riled up about wars, it's almost always been about wars that America was directly involved in or might get directly involved in. But for Americans of the early 1790s, the war between Britain and France was an ideological touchstone rather than a personal experience. Finally, I observed that the fallout from this foreign war led to the ouster of President John Adams.

All this seemed like a historical curiosity when my book went to press. Then came October 7 and the ensuing conflict. In my lifetime I’ve never seen Americans more divided over a foreign war than we are now. I was in college during the Vietnam war, and Americans were certainly divided over that. But the reason they were divided was that the war had become an American war. No one expects Americans will be fighting in the war between Israel and Hamas, yet the distrust and even loathing of each side in America for the other are as bitter as they were during the Vietnam years 

Moreover, much as Adams's pro-British policy in the 1790s led to his 1800 defeat by Thomas Jefferson, there’s a very good chance that Joe Biden's pro-Israel policy will lead to his defeat by Donald Trump. Younger Democrats, mostly progressives, don't have to flip to Trump for Biden to lose. They simply have to stay home—or vote for a third candidate. Given the anger evident in the demonstrations on campuses across the country, it appears likely many will do just that. 

Biden plainly is aware of this possibility. It's one reason, certainly among others, that he's working so hard for a ceasefire. Absent a ceasefire, he can expect protests at the Democratic national convention. These will play into Trump's claim that America is descending into chaos. The fact that the convention will be held in Chicago will make it impossible for reporters and pundits not to draw connections to the 1968 Democratic convention in the same city, at which another Democratic administration went down in flames.

Ironies abound. The Republicans overthrew the Federalists in 1800 largely because they convinced Americans the Federalists might lead America to war. Twelve years later it was the Republicans who led America to war, against Britain in the War of 1812. The antiwar activists of 1968 ensured the defeat of Hubert Humphrey by Richard Nixon, who prolonged and expanded the Vietnam war. The antiwar protesters of 2024 have nothing good to say about Trump, but they might guarantee his election.

George Washington wasn't an ironist, but he understood political dynamics. In his farewell address, he warned his compatriots against excessive attachment to parties or foreign powers. Either attachment would divert America from its true path, which was the pursuit of virtue and happiness here at home. Washington lived just long enough to realize Americans weren't listening. Many still aren't.

In a democracy, people get to choose their priorities and vote accordingly. But politics makes strange bedfellows, and wars make them even stranger.